Teflon Don?

The prospect of impeachment is a serious matter for any American President. In 1974, Richard Nixon resigned before he was impeached. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached, but acquitted by the Senate. Now, Donald Trump faces the prospect of impeachment for alleged abuse of power in his dealings with Ukraine.

In the spirit of this irreverent tweet from Ryan Fournier, founder of the Students for Trump group, I would also like to blame Trump for giving the Soviet Union the atomic bomb, killing Teamster boss Jimmy Hoffa, and giving the United States the NTSC television standard instead of PAL.

Fournier alludes to alleged improper conduct from Hillary Clinton in running the Clinton Foundation, in which funds raised for disaster relief for Haiti were improperly handled, Russia bribing the Clinton Foundation to obtain a favourable uranium deal, and in her capacity as Secretary of State during Barack Obama's first term as President. The email and Benghazi controversies dogged her during her unsuccessful 2016 Presidential election campaign.

It remains to be seen if Trump is guilty of abuse of power, or if Hillary Clinton actually did all of the things that Fournier accuses her of. 

Psephology for fun and profit

A prominent Australian newspaper columnist thinks it's newsworthy to report that an opinion poll gives presumptive Republican presidential nominee a 46 per cent favourability rating, compared to his likely opponent, Hillary Clinton, who has a 44 per cent rating.

Historically speaking, polls at this point in the electoral cycle are not a reliable indicator of general election results. Back in February and March 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter by 15 points in opinion polls. Reagan won the presidential election in a 44 state landslide. In May 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis was 10 points ahead of George Bush in opinion polls. Bush went on to convincingly win that year's election. More recently, in October 2012, Mitt Romney was 7 points ahead of Barack Obama in opinion polls, but still lost convincingly to Obama in the general election.

I'd be very surprised if Trump wins the election, but I'm happy to be proven wrong, either now or on election day. All Hillary Clinton has to do to win is to get all of Barack Obama's voters to vote for her, and she's a shoo-in.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/begrudging-wapo-poll-trump-46-clinton-44/article/2591982

Verbal jousting

As a general rule, as far as possible I try to avoid watching political interviews. They try my patience. Sean Hannity's interview with Luis Miranda, DNC Director of Communications is a case in point. Rather than answer Hannity's questions, Miranda rattled off his pre-prepared talking points.

Part of this was pushback against Hannity's at times abrasive interviewing technique, but to me Miranda seemed smug. He gave a glowing assessment of the Obama Administration's economic record, as well as that of previous Democrat presidencies.

No idea

The sloppily researched article

Yesterday US President Barack Obama delivered his second last State of the Union address. To mark the occasion, I noticed this error in one of my sister's New Idea magazines. New Idea is one of Australia's best selling women's magazines, with a mixture of celebrity news (both real and fabricated), recipes, health, and fashion, dished up with a side serving of occultism in the form of horoscopes and psychic medium telephone hotlines. 

Presumably the pressures of putting out a weekly magazine mean that sometimes production errors slip through unnoticed. I skim read the magazine in five minutes, but noticed this blunder in an article about Oprah Winfrey and her celebrity friends. As you can see, the caption reads that Barack Obama first ran for President in 2009. It is common knowledge that American presidents serve 4 year terms, and that since George Washington, presidential elections have always been held in leap years.

Pardon my snobbery, but New Idea has never been troubled by the need to uphold high standards of print journalism. 

Pedantry corner awakens

Sloppy spelling is now endemic, extending from print media to all forms of electronic media. According to the Fox News news ticker, US President Barack Obama just "singed" into law a new defence bill. They actually meant "signed."

Obama has a passable singing voice, and he has implemented some controversial measures by bypassing Congress and making executive orders. His political opponents can take solace in the knowledge that the US Constitution does not grant the President the power to make laws by singing them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6uHR90Sq6k

Oh no, not this again...

Australian Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan
(ALP, Lilley)

In a recent speech, Australian Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan, and his unlikely ally, Malcolm Turnbull, have called for Australia to become a republic. I last wrote about this issue in January 2010, but have followed it with varying degrees of interest and apathy for 20 years, even writing essays about it in high school. It was debated for much of the 1990's, culminating in an unsuccessful 1999 referendum. Australian republicans feel that having Queen Elizabeth II as Australia's head of state is anachronistic, and that it should have its own. In some intangible way, this will demonstrate to the world that Australia is an independent, mature nation, proud and secure in its own identity. It would have its own head of state to represent its interests on the world stage rather than those of Britain.

My position on this issue hasn't changed since 2010. The Republican movement has yet to put forward a strongly compelling argument demonstrating why Australia should no longer be a constitutional monarchy and become a republic. Australia has been offered two possible republic models. Under one, the President would be chosen by a two thirds majority of Parliament. The alternative would be a popular election. One good thing about not having a popularly elected head of state is that Australia does not have to endure American style election campaigns. Arguably the election winner isn't always the best candidate, but the best campaigner and fundraiser. Raising campaign funds means going behind the scenes to grant special favours to campaign backers in in exchange for financial support. Corruption in Australian campaign finance is enough of a problem as it is.

From memory it was almost two years between Barack Obama announcing his presidential candidacy until the 2008 US presidential election. Were it to have a President chosen by popular vote, my reading of the Australian electorate is that it wouldn't have the patience for such a drawn out campaign between rival candidates.

Whether the President was chosen by Parliament or by popular vote, another drawback is the potential for activist groups such as GetUp to attempt to influence the selection process. Australia's Governor-General is largely a ceremonial figure. Although they have often used their position to highlight social issues, they absent themselves from political debate. Since it is unclear if a President would follow this convention, especially a popularly elected one, this potentially creates unforseen constitutional implications.

Retaining Australia's present constitutional arrangements spares Australia the potential of exacerbating corruption in the political process, American style election campaigns, and the possibility of upsetting the balance of powers between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government by having a President seeking to intervene in the political process. Change is all very well, but it has to be change for the better rather than change for the sake of if. Our present constitutional arrangements work satisfactorily, so why alter them?

http://www.norepublic.com.au/
http://www.ouridentity.org.au/

Smear



Bo, the Obama family dog

 The Australian reports today on the story that won't go away; that President Barack Obama was not born in the United States, and is therefore constitutionally ineligible for office. This is on top of the rumours that despite being a Christian he is also secretly a Muslim who is plotting to Islamise the United States, a socialist, and if you subscribe to that particular view of eschatology, that he is even the Antichrist.

Documents such as birth notices and birth certificates can be forged, but to allege as such in Obama's case is very offensive. What disappoints me is that some conservative Christian groups are involved in spreading these rumours. Scripture clearly condemns spreading rumours, and for good reason warns Christians against this sort of conduct (Leviticus 19:16, Proverbs 11:13, 18:8, Matthew 7:1, Romans 1:29, 1 Timothy 5:13).

I have been around churches long enough to see the sometimes irrepairable damage that can be done to reputations by misguided self-appointed gatekeepers who take it upon themselves to call their leaders to account for their imagined failings.

In a democracy you have the freedom to speak up and criticise political leaders where necessary, usually without fear of overt retribution. This is a good and healthy thing. I'd say to Obama's Christian critics, if you want to oppose his Administration's policies or raise questions about the character of the man himself, well fine. Just make sure that you're doing it accurately. Spreading rumours is not only a poor witness and totally unacceptable, but it also damages the credibility of the church, which is enough of a problem these days as it is without you adding to it.

Hail to the chief

Prime Minister Holt and President Johnson

The White House and the Office of the Prime Minister today announced that President Obama will make his first official visit to Australia in March.

Barack Obama is the fifth American president to visit Australia. Time for a history lesson. It wasn't until 1966 that the first of these visits took place, when Lyndon Johnson set foot down under. This invitation was originally given to John F. Kennedy, who, had he not been assassinated in November 1963, presumably would have visited Australia in his second term. In 1966 the Vietnam War was nearing its height. Shortly before being succeeded by Harold Holt, Prime Minister Robert Menzies committed Australian troops to Vietnam and introduced conscription. Johnson's visit was overshadowed by controversy over the war and conscription. A pair of student protesters splashed a tin of red paint over Johnson's limousine as it travelled down Swanston Street in Melbourne. Similar protests took place in Sydney. When protesters blocked the motorcade route by laying on the road in front of it, then New South Wales Premier Robert Askin is supposed to have said words to the effect of, "Run the bastards over."

Johnson briefly returned to Melbourne in January 1968 to attend Holt's memorial service. In December 1967 he went missing, presumed drowned, while swimming in rough seas off Portsea in Victoria.   

President George H.W. Bush visited Australia in January 1992, with stopovers in Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, where he addressed a joint sitting of Federal Parliament. I remember some school friends telling me about a demonstration that was held on the streets of Melbourne the day Bush was in town. My friends were apolitical, but thought it would be fun to follow this group around and see what they did. One year after the end of the first Gulf War, some left wing political groups made a statement against American militarism by going on a rampage through the Myer department store.

Having secured a second term, Bill Clinton visited Australia in late 1996. From memory, this visit was carefully coordinated and security especially tightened so as to limit the opportunity for protesters to make trouble. The public was kept well away. This happened again in 2003 when George W. Bush graced us with his presence. Greens Senator Bob Brown  was ejected from the House of Representatives chamber for heckling Bush during his speech. He wanted Bush to free Australian Guantanamo Bay detainee David Hicks. Just as Bush surpassed his father by winning a second term, he also visited Australia twice as President, returning for the 2007 APEC summit.

What sort of reception will Obama receive? Will Kevin Rudd give him some R.M. Williams boots and some Buderim ginger as gifts? Will Rudd's welcoming speech have overly flowery language? Rudd is a good speaker, but unlike Obama, he's no orator. Will Obama really be going to the footy? If so, who will Barack barrack for? Foreign heads of state frequently come to Australia, but it's not every day that an American President comes to town, hence the special attention the media gives these visits.

No we cannot

Possibly coming to a book store remainder bin near you is this tome by Shelby Steele; A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win. I came across this the other day when I was browsing an online bookstore for books about Barack Obama. It was published just over a year ago, to mixed reviews, right before then Senator Obama of Illinois won the Iowa caucuses, which was the first step towards his election as President of the United States.

While I haven't read the book, I've gleaned from reviews that while this volume may contain some perfectly valid observations about the symbolic and political significance of Obama's candidacy, as well as character assessments of Obama himself, I'd imagine Steele would be feeling a little sheepish right now that his central thesis, that Obama couldn't win the Presidential election, was ultimately disproved. As of this writing, Obama's inauguration is now two weeks away. Now that the massive hype and expectation he built around himself during his campaign has subsided the onus is now on Obama to deliver and turn his lofty rhetoric into concrete action. Americans are in for an interesting four years.

On bended knee

Last week The Australian reprinted an article from Gerard Baker of The Times which was in my view a very incisive analysis of the current American Presidential election campaign. As Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fight it out to secure the Democratic nomination, a cult of personality seems to have developed around Obama, where the mostly favourable news media coverage he has received has become almost idolatrous, with him becoming a pseudo-Messianic figure. If this article is to be believed, this is not a new phenonemon, stretching back to the days of Robert Kennedy and Jimmy Carter, and in more recent years, to Bill Clinton. Had Kennedy not been assassinated in June 1968, he may well have become President, and probably would have served two terms. For their part, Presidents Carter (1977-1981) and Clinton (1993-2001) turned out to be flawed and human after all, which would have come as a disappointment to those journalists who canonised them at the time.

Despite our mistrust of authority figures and the tall poppy sydrome, we in Australia have often fallen into the same trap. Despite leading one of the most bold and progressive, but also inept governments in Australian history, former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam (1971-1975) remains a hero to many from the non-conservative side of politics, as is Bob Hawke (1983-1991). As a Christian, I need to heed Scriptural counsel about respecting our political leaders and praying for them, but not to the extent of hero worshipping them, which would be sinful. In the end, we voters need to be objective and informed about politics and politicians. We need to see through the lofty rhetoric of election campaigns and not allow ourselves to be carried away by the grand promises we often hear at these times.